Hillary Clinton stomped Obama in West Virginia last night. No amount of rolling out Superdelegates before people voted (4) or after he lost (2) is going to change that narrative. It is a glaring fact that he is a weak General Election candidate because he has not been able to connect with the blue collar voters that everyone agrees he needs to have to win and become President of The United States. He, his campaign and supporters have said they don't need West Virginia to win in November. He has a recurring habit of dismissing Hillary's successes and seems to think he can fundamentally change how Presidential races are won. For example, he and and his supporters seem to think he can win with College kids, Blacks, and high income intellectuals, therefore thumbing his nose at the people who have consistently rejected his candidacy. Unless I have been living under a rock for twenty five years, Democrats have tried that coalition before and have lost with McGovern, Dukasis, and Kerry. Only Bill Clinton was able to put together that "magic" formulae and win the Presidency, twice. Now Obama thinks he is so special that he can win out west ( Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington), along with California, therefore, negating Hillary's argument that she is beating McCain in the states Democrats need (swing States) to win the White House and is therefore the stronger candidate?
My question is, if he so strong in these Western States and intend to change the electoral college math, why then is he going to Missouri, Michigan, Florida and other states to get the "white" vote? First, let me say that he barely won Missouri, lost New Mexico and Arizona. Second, he has win in Republican states that have not gone Republican in years, or never. I know the argument is going to be that Democrats just won three seats in Louisiana, Illinois and Mississippi and that the earth is shifting but don't count on much more shifting. It would take a earthquake to shake more seats from Republican's grip, and believe me, that received a big wake-up call last night in Mississippi. So, if Obama and his supporters think they can count on more erosion in Republican ranks, I wouldn't stake my life on it.
Despite Obama's dissing and the media's incessant chatter about "The Math" there in an undeniable fact that Hillary is forcing Superdelegates to think about: Do you really want to take a risk and roll the dice with Obama? Do you want to dismiss a Proven formulae or take a risk with unreliable voters, especially young voters? Do you really want to take a gamble that Obama can win western states Republicans have consistently, the notable exception being Bill Clinton? Only they can make that call but they had better understand this: The White House is at stake. What scenario do you envision playing out? If they are not careful, they will wake up November 4, 2008 to a nightmare. They had better be thinking about winning, as opposed to who they "like."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051400890.html
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
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