A Slim Hope For Hillary?

Despite Tim Russert declaration that: "We now know who the Democratic Nominee is, and no one is going to dispute it. "Those closest to her will give her a hardheaded analysis, and if they lay it all out, they’ll say: "What is the rationale? What do we say to the undeclared Superdelegates tomorrow? Why do we tell them you’re staying in the race?’ And tonight, there’s no good answer for that." And, the suggestion by Anrea Mitchell that Hillary Clinton was staying in the race so she can "go out on a high note" after her West Virginia win has not materialized. Ever since the previous week's primary returns, in which Hillary lost North Carolina big to Barack Obama, and squeaked out a win in Indiana, the assumption was, and the Media has been saying that the race was over, it is just a manner in which she would make her exit.

I have a sense that Hillary intends to be in it to the end, and that she has a strategy to wrest the nomination away from Obama. It will make for exciting media coverage, if that happens.

Time Magazine, among others, has jumped into the fray: It declared Obama the nominee with a cover story that said, "And the nominee is..." with a picture of Obama. On "The Early Show" on CBS, Bob Schieffer said, "Basically...this race is over." On ABC, George Stephanopoulos said, "This nomination fight is over." And Chris Wallace of Fox News Channel said that "I think the Clinton people know the game is almost up."

Earlier today, Andrea Mitchell is reporting that, "for the first time now, her [Hillary] people, her closest aides, are saying, "she knows the reality, we know the reality." They’re acknowledging that she’s not going to win this―that she is really just going through the motions. And that’s a big change." But there is little indication that Hillary has accepted this notion.

I was somewhat surprised myself when I heard this, as nothing Hillary's campaign has said indicates that she is dropping out. It would come as a complete shock if she did not continue through Puerto Rico.

Clinton Campaign Chair Terry McAulife challenged Russert Sunday about his conclusion that the race was over: "Did it become an avalanche after Tuesday, when you and others were all on the air saying it was over?" Russert got defensive and said that he was only quoting others. "The Clinton campaign says it’s the media. What we did," said Russert, "is add up the delegates, call Clinton supporters and say, "Is the math there?" Clinton supporters said "No."

The race is still very fluid. It has been, and the networks’ graphic still says, that the total needed is 2026 delegates. But over the last couple of weeks, Hillary’s team has abandoned that number. The new number is 2209, or 2210, which is one more than half the delegates, if Florida and Michigan get to seat all of their delegates. This is supposed to be decided at a May 31 Rules Committee meeting, but up to now, Howard Dean has shown no leadership as Party Chairman to be able to engineer a compromise that would satisfy both Obama and Clinton.

Tim Russert erroneously said on Tuesday night during coverage of the West Virginia Primary that "48 hours ago on Meet the Press, Terry McAuliffe said he was willing to seat half of the delegations of Michigan and Florida." But in fact, McAuliffe didn’t say that. When Russert asked him on Meet the Press if he would accept that compromise, McAuliffe said, "We certainly might, you bet. But in fairness, the Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet on, on the 31st to make that decision." When pressed on the issue again by Russert, he again deferred to the Rules and Bylaws Committee and said, "it’s up to them to make that decision." That is a distinction with a significant difference.

I watched the Meet The Press coverage last Sunday and Terry McAuliffe NEVER said he would accept half the delegates.

Unfortunately for the Democrats and the media, Hillary has emerged as the stronger candidate with wider appeal, but only after the media turned a blind eye to Obama's problems and "associations" and abandoned her for the "Rock Star" Obama. It is now apparent to everyone that Obama has serious weaknesses on policy matters, like the reason for and effect of raising capital gains taxes, and his willingness to meet unconditionally at the presidential level with terrorists and dictators.

Perhaps more serious, his links to and handling of the situations with his controversial former minister Jeremiah Wright, his characterization of small town voters as "bitter and clinging to religion and guns" and the unrepentant terrorist and former Weatherman William Ayers. These issues have no doubt hurt him with White voters. The exit polls in West Virginia showed that 50% of the voters believe that Obama shares Jeremiah Wright’s views to some degree, and nearly half of those who voted for Hillary said that if Obama is their party’s nominee, they won’t vote for him. His radical ties are showing, and his efforts to distance himself without seeming to repudiate his past smacks of disengenuousness.

If (and when) Hillary loses the nomination it will be beacuse of several reasons: At one point, immediately after Super Tuesday on February 5, Obama won 10 straight primaries and caucuses, by an average of about 30 points each. Hillary's Campaign did not have a strategy to contest the Caucus states and her most importantly, her supporters and the Democratic Party Elite abandoned her in favor of Obama.

Hillary has become a formidable candidate but her campaign made a series of mistakes. Earlier misspoke about Bosnia, or as Larry King called it, a "mistruth." More recently, she has been brutally criticized for her comment to USA Today, in which she referenced an Associated Press story that talked about an exit poll that "found how Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me." Hillary had a valid point, but it was maybe politically incorrect to refer to "white" voters.

The comment sure caused a ruckus: Bob Herbert, the black columnist for the New York Times said that those comments were the equivalent of saying, "He can’t win! Don’t you understand? He’s black! He’s black!" he copntinued, "The Clintons have been trying to embed that gruesomely destructive message in the brains of white voters and Superdelegates for the longest time. It’s a grotesque insult to African-Americans, who have given so much support to both Bill and Hillary over the years."

All I can say is: where is the outrage when Blacks have been voting for Obama by 90+% matgins, given all the Clintons have done for Blacks and Civil rights? Why is this not racial voting? At least Obama has been getting 30-40% of the White vote? Hillary is not getting even 10%! Why is it racial pride when blacks vote 90+% for someone who's done NOTHING for them, but demogogue someone who has?


Hillary says she will continue and I believe she will. She told the crowd in West Virginia Tuesday night that "...I never give up. I'll keep coming back, and I'll stand with you as long as you stand with me." Or as James Carville puts it..."until the last dog dies." Obama and the media has probably succeeded in drying up her money but I have no doubt they will find the dough, somehow. On that, Andra Mitchell was again suspicious: She questioned the Clintons’ trustworthiness on money matters, saying on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that "We don’t know and won’t know whether their claims of having enough money (to continue on with the campaign) are accurate and truthful."

Don't ever count out the Clintons.

"Regardless of what happens with Michigan and Florida, or even if Superdelegates appear on paper to give Obama the number of delegates he needs to win, Hillary still won’t get out. As Politico has reported, there is little agreement among the various news agencies about exactly how many Superdelegates are committed to whom, and how many remain uncommitted. They point to the argument that counting Superdelegates is an art, not a science. Hillary could go to the convention in Denver the last week of August, where the delegates actually vote, and count on their ultimate support. If she can somehow get enough delegates to switch to her side, or hold back support from Obama, she might make it through the first ballot without Obama securing the nomination. Then all delegates are free, and this is where the Clintons may see their opening and chance for victory."

I know "people" think Clintons have lost their magic and the fear and respect they used to have in the party but they still might be able to pull off the upset. However, It would not be pretty and would shatter any hope of party unity. Any illusion that if Obama gets the nomination that Hillary will want him to win is just that, an illusion. If she loses, the Democrats will be split and will lose the White House. Count on it. That is, unless she gets on the ticket.

Despite their pretense that the race has gone on too long and that Obma is the nominee, the LWM love the high ratings and constant coverage. On the night of the West Virginia primary, Chris Matthews told Terry McAuliffe, who earlier in the day had called Matthews the "unofficial chairman of the Obama campaign," that he, as a reporter and political junkie, wants more than anything to see this race go down to midnight on the last night of the Denver convention. Yet, Matthews had said that morning, "I think most people...understand that the fight is over for the nomination."

Hillary was perceived to be the early favorite by the media. However, as Obama gained strength, (with their help), and the Clintons were accused of using race (this was a bogus charge), and Obama's links to the far-left of the Democratic Party to try to stop his momentum, his popularity grew in the media. Chris Matthews talked about how after being in the presence of an Obama speech, he "felt this thrill going up my leg," and he compared Obama’s message to the New Testament. The "rock star" treatment was obvious for all to see. There is scarcely any pretense of objectivity by any of the networks.If any journalist defends Clinton, he/she is not asked back on the network (Craig Crawford).

In a column on The Politico titled, "Obama’s Secret Weapon, The Media," Jim VandeHei and John Harris argued that "Many journalists are not merely observers but participants in the Obama phenomenon." Well said. Beware, John McCain. If tthey crucify a Democrat, just imagine what they'll do to you?

The Big question is: will Hillary bow out of the race gracefully, as Andrea Mitchell is reporting? I don't think so! She has made her position clear. Back in February, she made it clear that she looks at the letter rather than the spirit of the pledged delegate rules, which is that even they don’t have to vote on the first or any ballot for whom their state’s primary or caucus sent them to Denver to vote for. So until the delegates have a chance to actually vote, they are just stating a temporary preference. That is how the Clintons are looking at this process.

The drama for the nomination continues: With the Democrats badly divided, it is possible that McCain could win a big victory in November. That depends on him attracting the votes of pissed off Democrats who are angry that the party has passed Hillary over for the no name, no resume, no accomplishment, flawed candidate in Obama. McCain appears to be reaching out to the left, especially with his support for global warming treaties and legislation. In his recent speech on the need for conservative judges, he defended his vote for Clinton’s nomination of ACLU general counsel Ruth Bader Ginsburg to the Supreme Court.

The Republicans have their own set of problems.

The Republican Party is also in turmoil but it hasn’t gotten as much coverage as the problems in the Democratic Party. About a quarter of Republicans in recent primaries have refused to vote for McCain, and Rep. Ron Paul, the most popular Republican presidential candidate on the college campuses, says he won’t endorse the Arizona senator for president. While Ralph Nader is threatening to siphon votes away from the Democratic nominee, third party candidates such as Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party and Bob Barr, the likely candidate of the Libertarian Party, could take some conservative votes away from McCain.

How will this crazy, emotional campaign end? Who knows. We're all just have to go along for the wild exciting and yes...maddeningly complicated ride.