Do Or Die: Can Hillary Pull Off An Upset?

Today is the big day! Indiana and North Carolina voters weighs in on who they think the Democratic Nominee should be. The Polls opened at 6:00 AM Eastern in Indiana and 6:30 AM Eastern in North Carolina. By all accounts, turnout is heavy. Over 400,000 voters have already voted early in Indiana and over 500,000 in North Carolina. The polling and the punditry suggests that both states will be very close. In Indiana, Hillary Clinton has a 4% or 6% lead over Barack Obama, depending on which poll you believe. In North Carolina, Obama has between a 7% or 9% lead, again, depending on which polling you believe. Not even the pollsters can say with any degree of certainty what will happen.

Obama had predicted a win in both Indiana and North Carolina. Coming from Illinois, a neighboring state, he was expected to do very well in Indiana, especially in Gary and Indianapolis with the African American concentration and College Towns. He was expected to do extremely well in North Carolina given the large population of African Americans, who make up about 40% of the voters, and a significant voting block for him (97% in Pennsylvania). Prior to Pennsylvania, which Hillary Clinton won by almost 10% (9.4%), Obama had a 10% point lead in Indiana and a 25% point lead in North Carolina. However, since Pennsylvania, both races have tightened. Hillary Clinton has between a 4%-6% lead in Indiana and has closed the gap significantly in North Carolina. The race in North Carolina is now down to single digits, with Obama hanging on to a 8% or 9% lead. Hillary Clinton has closed strongly but will it be enough to pull of an upset?

Reverend Wright has hurt Obama. There is no doubt about it. Polls seem to suggest he has handled the long overdue denunciation of Reverend Wright well (I am sceptical), maybe because I am a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton. But when you combine that with the "bitter" comments and the statements by his wife, Michele Obama, he has has a bad month. He has been changing his strategy of late to appeal to rural, blue collar voters but it remains to be seen if he can "connect" with this constituency who has backed Hillary Clinton consistently in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Will his change in strategy close the deal? He brought out reinforcements this past weekend (his daughters) and have staged "family picnics" and town halls to cut into Hillary's coalition in an effort to "close the deal."

The last several days, as the Reverend Wright controversy seems to have died down (??), Hillary Clinton has proposed a gas tax holiday for working class voters, the core of her support. Obama has mocked and criticized it as a political ploy, phony, and gimmickry. He has enlisted the "support" of "economists" to roundly criticize the plan and Hillary, among them Robert Reich, a former Clinton Administration official sudden Obama supporter (he supposedly was going to be neutral). This highlights the differences between Hillary and Obama, including the people who are their core supporters. Hillary is speaking to low income people who are hurting to buy gas and food, while Obama is basically saying the savings from the gas tax holiday is so minuscule, it won't make a difference (about $28-$30). I gotta tell you, if you are hurting, even $20 will ease your pain because it is $20 extra to buy milk and cereal. The "economists" and Obama's wealthy supporters (including Michael Bloomberg) are rich and can afford to buy gas at any price, since it won't make a dent into their vast fortunes. Obama has voted for a gas tax holiday three (3) times in the Illinois State Legislature. Of course he later voted against it, claiming it was a mistake. He neglects to mention that he has voted for Dick Cheney's Energy Bill, which Hillary voted against.

Last night Obama dragged Bill Clinton into the race again by referencing the fact the Clinton did not approve of a gas tax in the 1990s, forgetting to mention that we had a surplus then, as therefore fiscally it did not make sense. We are now in 2008 and times are different. We are experience inflation that is reminiscent of the 1980s when Ronald Reagan was President. People want and need relief. Maybe Obama should propose an idea, instead of criticizing Hillary. At least she is showing that she is thinking about the pain people are feeling. When you are hurting to fill your tank and it cuts into your food budget, you do not want to hear economists, millionaires and celebrities tell you crap, you want relief now.

Hillary Clinton's Plan is not just talk. She is proposing the gas tax holiday and she has a way to pay for it, by requiring the Oil Companies to pay for it from their profits. Surely, they can give back a little? She also wants to take on OPEC and close the "Enron Loophole." She will not be "taking money from the Highway Fund" as her critics have suggested. I heard Andrea Mitchell made the comment today that she did not have One Economist who agreed with her proposal. Well, you know what, she is "listening" to the people she speaks to on the campaign trail. The fact that Obama has put out ads criticizing suggests that it has some resonance because today he has put out yet another ad criticizing it. We shall see which argument resonates with voters, relief now, or the economists who say it won't make an impact and offer a proposal that Obama pursue as President.